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In the first half of 2022, the Chinese economy was plagued with weak demand and low economic growth, driven in part by their zero COVID policy. The country’s weaker economy caused a lower demand for steel, meaning that production fell by 8.7% y/y as of May.
On Friday 24 February, one year will have passed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. During that year, dry bulk exports from Ukraine have dropped 77.8% compared to the same period a year earlier, causing a decline in global dry bulk volumes. Seaborne exports have been restricted to agricultural goods and even those have been limited.
The shipping number of the week provides members with a brief analysis of relevant developments in the shipping markets.
Despite the collapse in freight rates, shipowners still have an appetite for new container ship orders and the order book has continued to grow. The record high order book of 7.54 million TEU will result in significant changes to the container fleet in the coming years.
US manufacturing of durable goods, which has been lagging the wider recovery of the US economy, hit an all-time high in June when USD 270.5 billion worth of goods was produced.
At the start of October, the capesize order book was at 20 million DWT, a mere 5% of the capesize fleet. The contracting of newbuild capesize ships has gradually decreased since its peak in 2013 and only 5 million DWT were contracted so far in 2023, down 4% y/y. Low freight rates paired with a young fleet are keeping the order book small.
Brazil’s soybean harvest is behind schedule due to heavy rain with exports down 31% y/y in the first two months of 2023. But despite the slow start, Brazil is headed for a record harvest and a sharp increase in exports during the coming month.
The shipping number of the week provides members with a brief analysis of relevant developments in the shipping markets.
Scrubbers were installed on 399 ships in 2022, a fall of 24% y/y, and currently 13% of bulker, container, and tanker ships have a scrubber installed. Despite the slowing rate of installations, the share of ships with a scrubber is set to increase in coming years as 17% of ships in the shipyards’ order books are expected to have a scrubber installed.
During the first three quarters of 2023, China has continued expanding its crude inventories by an estimated 0.7 million barrels per day (mbpd). These increased inventories could allow China to maintain strong exports of refined products even if crude oil imports are lowered.
