With fleet growth of 3.7%, compared to global container shipping demand growth of only 1%, even blanked sailings have been unable to lift freight rates.
The fundamental balance in the market has worsened in 2019 with supply growth outstripping demand, and BIMCO expects that this will continue into 2020.
BIMCO expects freight rates will once again come under pressure after the end of the high seasonal demand in Q4, as well as the boost from the sulphur cap. The fleet growth of 6.3% in the crude oil tanker market and the 4.8% growth in the oil product fleet will have its consequences on the supply and demand balance.
A continued slowdown in global growth, as well as a lower trade multiplier will reduce overall demand for shipping for the rest of this year and through 2020.
The oil market has recently been shaken up by geopolitical events, but volatility in the price difference between low and high sulphur fuel cannot be explained by that alone – the uncertainty is the chaos factor.
BIMCO members can now monitor the price spread between Marine Gas Oil Low Sulphur and 380 centistoke High Sulphur Fuel Oil in 32 different ports around the world with daily information supplied by MABUX.