Market analysis
The turbulence of the past year has in many ways clouded the underlying fundamentals in the dry bulk shipping market, but with 2020 now behind us, we are in a better position to establish an overview of expectations for 2021.
October has been the best performing month of 2020 in terms of US exports of the goods outlined in the ‘Phase One’ trade agreement between the US and China. Export values of these goods totalled USD 10.3 billion, breaking the previous high of USD 7.8b in September.
There has been much talk in recent weeks and months about Chinese coal policy, particularly with regard to imports from Australia, after anecdotal evidence suggest Chinese importers have been told to shun Australian thermal coal.
There is money to be made by both carriers and tonnage providers as volumes defy usual seasonality and remain strong into the fourth quarter of the year. On top of that, low bunker prices –, one of the keys to high profitability this year – look set to stick around.
This year, tanker shipping will not benefit from the usual strong winter seasonal effect. Though the new lockdowns being introduced in many countries are less strict than in the spring, the effect on tanker shipping will be worse, given the oil supply glut of Q2.
Record-breaking GDP drops seen in the second quarter of the year have been replaced by record-breaking growth rates in the third. Despite this, the major economies of the world have still not returned to pre-pandemic levels, except China.
Related event
Xenata - Container Market in 2021
- 09 February, 2021
Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst will discuss the outlook for the container market in 2021
The shipping markets checkpoint – Special Guest Speaker: Mark Williams
The third webinar in our series on the future of the commercial shipping markets.
The webinar had Mark Williams, Managing Director at Shipping Strategy, as the special guest speaker and Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, debating the current developments in the shipping markets. The two touched upon the impact of the pandemic and the ways in which shipping sectors navigate through tumultuous times.
The shipping markets checkpoint – Special Guest Speaker: Paul Marsh
The second webinar in our series on the future of the commercial shipping markets.
Paul Marsh, Research Director at Navig8 Group as the special guest speaker and our very own Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand set the scene by discussing the macroeconomics changes brought by the pandemic and how they accentuated the geopolitical tensions felt by the oil tanker shipping industry. The two analysts then share their views on what lies ahead for the crude and petroleum products carries.
Stay up to date
January 2021
Chinese imports heading for 50% market share of the dry bulk market after a turbulent year
The turbulence of the past year has in many ways clouded the underlying fundamentals in the dry bulk shipping market, but with 2020 now behind us, we are in a better position to establish an overview of expectations for 2021.
December 2020
‘Phase One’ agreement boosts exports and doubles volumes from last year
October has been the best performing month of 2020 in terms of US exports of the goods outlined in the ‘Phase One’ trade agreement between the US and China. Export values of these goods totalled USD 10.3 billion, breaking the previous high of USD 7.8b in September.
Australian coal wins attention, but Indonesian exports to China have fallen the most
There has been much talk in recent weeks and months about Chinese coal policy, particularly with regard to imports from Australia, after anecdotal evidence suggest Chinese importers have been told to shun Australian thermal coal.
November 2020
Container shipping: a surprisingly profitable year during challenging times, but how long can it last?
There is money to be made by both carriers and tonnage providers as volumes defy usual seasonality and remain strong into the fourth quarter of the year. On top of that, low bunker prices –, one of the keys to high profitability this year – look set to stick around.
Tanker shipping: worst not yet over as industry pays for strong second quarter
This year, tanker shipping will not benefit from the usual strong winter seasonal effect. Though the new lockdowns being introduced in many countries are less strict than in the spring, the effect on tanker shipping will be worse, given the oil supply glut of Q2.
Dry bulk shipping: China remains the driving factor, but coal policy is disrupting the market
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-even point, though not high enough to make up for losses made during the first part of the year.
Macroeconomics: as virus cases surge, a slower recovery awaits
Record-breaking GDP drops seen in the second quarter of the year have been replaced by record-breaking growth rates in the third. Despite this, the major economies of the world have still not returned to pre-pandemic levels, except China.
October 2020
Stay up to date with BIMCO's shipping market insights at online events
In the coming months, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, will participate in BIMCO’s very own webinar series: The Shipping Markets Checkpoint: threats and opportunities in a COVID-19 world, as well as numerous insightful virtual conferences focusing on the commercial shipping markets.
US soya bean season kicks off with strongest exports in history
Following years of disruption to US soya bean exports due to the US-China trade war, the first seven weeks of the 2020/2021 marketing year, which runs from 1 September to 31 August, have seen the strongest exports ever.
Long-term freight rates to the US jump USD 550 in a day
After a period with short-term container freight rates reaching record highs on many of the major container shipping trades, long-term rates are now also experiencing a boost. Particularly long-term freight rates between the Far East and the US have jumped, copying the development in short-term contracts which have seen the increase in freight rates to the US (both coasts) outpacing the rise in spot rates to Europe.
