Many agricultural trades have been exceptionally strong in 2021 and several grain types have experienced record high exports. US corn exports are no exception.
During the first seven weeks of 2024, cargo volumes to and from ports in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea declined 21% y/y. The number of ships arriving in these ports significantly declined as merchant shipping increasingly avoided transiting through the region due to concerns over attacks on ships by the Houthis.
Between January and October, dry bulk exports out of the Black Sea increased by 13% y/y, driven by Russian wheat exports. After two strong consecutive wheat harvests in Russia, the country’s exports are now on track to reach a new record in 2023. However, Black Sea export volumes are 20% lower than in 2021 due to the loss of Ukrainian cargoes following Russia’s invasion of the country.
Congestion for ships loading grain cargoes at Brazilian ports has surged this year due to large harvests and low water levels in the Amazon River. Between January and November, the average waiting time reached 15 days, up from nine days average between 2018 and 2022 and well above the global average of five days for grain loadings in 2023.
Chinese refinery crude oil throughput has reached its highest level ever, with total processed volumes up 12.0% in the first five months of this year compared to 2020, and up 10.9% from the same period in 2019.
Reaching 116.1 million tonnes, Chinese refineries’ output hit a new high for the first two months of the year. Increases in exports and domestic transportation demand, following higher export quotas and the lifting of COVID restrictions, are driving growth.
Immediately following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, crude oil prices increased on fears of supply disruption. In less than two weeks, Brent prices rose from USD 97/barrel to USD 128/barrel. Since then, Brent prices have consistently been above USD 100 and above USD 110 since mid-May. On 5 July, Brent dropped to USD 102.77 and WTI ended at USD 99.50. Some analysts now predict even lower prices before the end of the year.
“Fill her up son, unleaded; I need a full tank of gas where I'm headed,” former Police-front man, Sting, sang back in 1999 on his solo album: “Brand New Day”. This country-inspired song could be the anthem for what is coming around next week, as Monday 31 May is Memorial Day in the US; the day that kicks off “the US driving season”.