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Low demand growth will continue into 2020, with carriers struggling to increase freight rates enough to cover the additional costs of the IMO 2020 sulphur cap compliance. Fleet growth is lower then last year, but still too high compared to demand growth.
2015 will see a new record inflow of newbuilt tonnage. BIMCO forecasts close to 1.6 million TEU will be delivered by the end of 2015. This marks the highest inflow of new capacity ever.
James Hetfield may have had container line operators in mind when writing: “Waiting for the one – the day that never comes – when you stand up and feel the warmth – but the sunshine never comes”.
The first five months of 2012 have been developing in the right direction for the container shipping industry. Freight rates on the main routes have been going up markedly and consecutively in March, April, May and June, despite happening at a decreasing amount – the total hikes amount to USD 1,100-1,300 per TEU. This has lifted freight rates on the Far East to Europe trading lane from USD 536 per TEU just before Christmas to the current level of USD 1,634 per TEU, equal to +205%.
Towards the end of 2011, we got the first indication that liner companies were winning “the pricing battle” against shippers on the level of freight rates on the main lanes from Far East to Europe and the Mediterranean.
Forecast: BIMCO expects the fourth quarter to be a difficult one, with volumes going down from recent highs. This may also mean idling vessels becomes more normal again as they are removed from stings or simply temporarily abundant as volumes tighten. During the first half of 2010 the container trade has made a remarkable comeback. Rates have doubled on many routes and volumes have returned from the abyss to the benefit of many owners who have switched from red ink to black as a result of this.
The shift in oil demand is causing shorter sailing distances, so in order to maintain the fundamental balance with the present fleet in the tanker markets, the oil demand has to grow twice as much in the East as the oil demand shrinks in the West.
Despite key economic regions’ notable fiscal policies aimed at stimulating growth, there is still no full-blown and self-sustainable economic recovery.
Asian Gypsy Moth (AGM) has been renamed as Flighted Spongy Moth Complex (FSMC) due to a change of name effected in 2022.
