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Demand drivers and freight rates Driven by the pandemic and stimulus-induced consumer spending on retail goods, container shipping has been a great place to be for carriers and tonnage providers, while proving a headache for those with cargoes needing to be moved in a timely manner.
The IMO Sub-committee for the Carriage of Cargoes and Containers (CCC) succeeded in finalising the carriage requirements for bauxite cargoes based on GBWG's bauxite research, paving the way for safe carriage of these cargoes.
The bad news for liner operators appears to have no end. In a normal year, the weeks leading up to Chinese New Year (CNY) bring an increase in volumes and freight rates. So far, however, the lead-up to CNY in 2023 has been the worst in 13 years.
Container volumes in head-haul and regional trades are the key drivers of container vessel demand, average container rates, liner operator profits, and, since 2020, port congestion. According to Container Trade Statistics, combined head-haul and regional trade volumes fell 0.4% y/y in the first half of 2022. Head-haul volumes were 1.3% lower than a year ago while regional volumes were 0.6% higher. Under normal market circumstances the peak season in key head-haul trades should lift Q3 volumes. However, recently released volume statistics indicate that there may be no peak season in 2022 but it is very likely that volumes will slow in Q4.
The container ship orderbook hit a post-financial crisis low just below 2m TEU in October 2020. In the eighteen months since then, liner operators have seen record profits and a large percentage of these have been poured into newbuilding contracts.
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