Macro economics: 2016 brings lowest GDP growth rate since financial crisis began
27 January 2017It will not be a surprise if we see another downward revision of GDP growth in 2017...
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It will not be a surprise if we see another downward revision of GDP growth in 2017...
This annual report records the lowest number of incidents reported since 1998 although within the reported incidents there is a 10 year high in the number of seafarer kidnappings.
The dry bulk fleet exceeded 800 mill DWT in January 2017, as the dry bulk fleet grew by 2.6% year on year. BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst Peter Sand expects the dry bulk fleet to grow 1.6% for the full year in 2017, if the projected demolition activity of 19 mill DWT is realised. The declining growth rate from the panamax, supramax and handysize segments was absorbed by a growing capesize fleet; the total fleet growth was stable in 2016.
Finally, we can conclude that a one-sided focus on monetary expansion handled by central banks is not enough anymore.
Demand. The dry bulk commodity imports into and exports out of China we have seen in the first half of 2016 are very positive – and nothing short of extraordinary. But, putting it into perspective, compared to the devastating freight rate levels over the same period, it highlights that something is very wrong in the dry bulk market. The market is nowhere near balanced.
From a crude oil market perspective, 2016 can be summed up as “eventful”. In January, the international sanctions on Iran were lifted, resulting in a very swift increase of their oil production capacities and subsequent re-entry into the global oil export market.
2016 continues where 2015 ended, with all eyes on China. This is mainly because of uncertainty surrounding the development of the world’s second-largest economy. When the first day of the Shanghai Stock Exchange of 2016 closed prematurely, the trading results echoed around the world. It warned us that we are in for a rough ride in 2016.
Demand. Lower growth rates for refinery throughput and drawdowns on swollen oil stocks has impacted the seaborne tanker market negatively. BIMCO expected this to happen...
Severe overcapacity in the market and recently agreed contract rates on the transpacific trade lanes keeps pressure high on the liner companies.
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