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Peter talks to Gibraltar Shipping providing more insight on his role and views on current shipping trends.
2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat differently.
The 2015 has started off as a pretty challenging year for the container shipping industry. With volatile spot rates coupled with oversupply and ordering of ever bigger ships, shipowners across the board seem to have a lot on their plates.
The current demise of the dry bulk market isn’t one to go away anytime soon. That doesn’t mean that it can’t improve, with all ship classes expected to cover their operating costs by May. Meanwhile, demolition activity isn’t enough, at least thus far, to offset oversupply of tonnage in the dry bulk market.
The upcoming winter season could be a very welcome time-out from sub-USD 10,000 per day markets for both crude and product tanker markets. BIMCO forecast that freight rates for VLCC will firm as the winter season
Forecast: BIMCO expects the fourth quarter to be a difficult one, with volumes going down from recent highs. This may also mean idling vessels becomes more normal again as they are removed from stings or simply temporarily abundant as volumes tighten. During the first half of 2010 the container trade has made a remarkable comeback. Rates have doubled on many routes and volumes have returned from the abyss to the benefit of many owners who have switched from red ink to black as a result of this.
The challenge of redeploying laid-up vessels in a market flooded by newbuildings creates a market balanced on a knife edge
All stakeholders in shipping realize that the business is cyclical, and the most important challenge is to predict the ups and downs and plan accordingly. But few had in their wildest fantasies predicted the financial crisis that hit the world four years ago, and the significant drop in cargo volumes and the major impact this had on all shipping markets.
The demand picture for oil tankers is steady – perhaps a bit too steady if you look at the freight rate movements for VLCC crude oil tankers and MR clean product tankers. This stands in contrast to the spikes that Suezmax owners have achieved during the first five months of 2012.
A fundamentally weak oil demand that is negatively affected by the high oil prices is hampering demand for both crude and product tanker tonnage. The weak demand is set to stay around according to IEA, which projects limited growth in 2011 of 1.5% against the 3.3% rebound growth in 2010.
