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China’s crude oil imports have doubled from 2011 to 2021 and now account for 20% of global seaborne crude oil volumes.
Due to supply concerns at domestic power plants, Indonesian authorities banned coal exports during January 2022, removing around 30% of global coal volumes from the bulk market as a result. This caused Newcastle coal futures to increase by more than a third and added strain on coal inventories across Asia. The ban was lifted in February.
China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil and Russia is the second largest crude exporter. Much of the crude oil trade between the two countries, however, is piped and the short distance from Far East Russia to China also limits the impact on demand for crude oil tankers. Still, a change in the Russia to China dirty trade has the potential to impact tanker tonne miles demand as it could come at the expense of longer trade lanes.
Bunker sales in the world’s largest bunkering hub fell to 3.94 million tonnes in September, the lowest level since June 2020 and a 6.7% drop from September 2020.
In a notice released on 5 May 2022, India’s Ministry of Power instructed all power plants to increase their imports of coal. Specifically, the Ministry demands that power plants designed to run on domestic coal start importing at least 10% of their requirements.
In 2023, 2.3 million TEU of container ship capacity was delivered, beating the former all-time high by 37%. Year-to-date another record has been set as more than 1 million TEU has already been delivered during the first four months of the year, an increase of nearly 80% compared to the previous record.
During the first three quarters of 2023, China has continued expanding its crude inventories by an estimated 0.7 million barrels per day (mbpd). These increased inventories could allow China to maintain strong exports of refined products even if crude oil imports are lowered.
The bad news for liner operators appears to have no end. In a normal year, the weeks leading up to Chinese New Year (CNY) bring an increase in volumes and freight rates. So far, however, the lead-up to CNY in 2023 has been the worst in 13 years.
Despite the collapse in freight rates, shipowners still have an appetite for new container ship orders and the order book has continued to grow. The record high order book of 7.54 million TEU will result in significant changes to the container fleet in the coming years.
Having narrowly avoided a recession in the fourth quarter of 2022, the Japanese economy appears to be recovering. However, Japan’s demand for steel remains weak and as a result, the country’s bulk imports are estimated to have fallen by 4% y/y in the first quarter of 2023.
