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The global macroeconomic scene has become more volatile, with prominent factors such as oil prices and global currencies causing a commotion.
It has been quite some time since macro-economic development has looked this positive and as supportive of shipping.
BIMCO reported in our previous macroeconomics report in April 2017 that monthly indicators were showing a strengthening in the global economy. The firm growth dynamics in advanced economies have now, four months later, had a cascade effect on some emerging markets and developing economies (EMDE). This solid growth has sparked an appetite for EMDE assets and indicates that the market expects a pickup.
The world economy has stopped shrinking – Coming quarters could prove strong. Global economy: The International Monetary Fund is expecting a V-shaped recession with fairly quick recovery and positive quarterly growth figures in 2010. However, this is just one of
Much depends on whether public stimulus will be followed by “real” demand. Global economy: The global economy has returned to positive growth following dramatic declines.
All eyes are on China in recent months as most other non-Chinese economic indicators have been dwarfed by the government’s actions and markets’ reactions. It is all of the things that we don’t know about the Chinese economy that is worrying, not the fact that the economy is in a transition phase which inevitably will drive down GDP growth and change import and export patterns.
Global economic activity is once again at the centre of attention as the shipping industry looks for guidance on the overall future demand.
Global economy: World growth is now projected at 4.6% in 2010. Relative to the April 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO), this represents an upward revision of about ½ a percentage point in 2010, reflecting stronger activity during the first half of the year. At the same time, Eurozone downside risks have risen sharply amid renewed financial turbulence.
Global Economy: WTO says that trade is likely to grow by 13.5% in 2010. This is an upward revision of world trade from the March forecast of 10%. The massive growth comes back-to-back with the 2009 decline of 12.2%, and has to be seen in that perspective. However, the news is positive and definitely helpful for the global economy as it struggles to leave the crisis behind and sustain positive growth going forward.
At first recovery needs to be sustainable – then tightening of public stimulus needs to be coherent and must not take place too soon
