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On 10 February 2016, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) hit 290. At that point, a bulk carrier regardless of its size, age and fuel-efficient qualities earned a time charter average of USD 2,417-2,776 per day.
The preliminary amount of dry bulk tonnage being demolished during the first half of 2015 is 20 million DWT. So could we be heading for a new demolition record level in 2015?
The dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months.
It looks like 2018 will be a year that shipowners should take advantage of, as the dry bulk fleet is likely to grow at the slowest pace seen since 1999, and BIMCO sees global demand growth outstripping supply growth in 2018.
BIMCO expected newbuild activity to pick up, so the recent development is not surprising. It is however not what the industries needs. As the dry bulk -, crude oil - and oil product tanker shipping sectors are all struggling with very low freight rates, it is important that the recent development in contracting activity reflects a short-term trend.
In poor freight markets you might think that vessels were being recycled at a younger and younger age, but looking into the data a different story reveals itself.
BIMCO has issued two new standard contracts of affreightment (COA) for dry bulk cargoes – one that can be used with different voyage charter parties and another that includes all terms and provisions usually found in a COA.
In absolute numbers, 2011 is going to be the new Number 1 in terms of the greatest amount ever of dry bulk tonnage leaving the fleet to be recycled. We are on course for more than 20 million DWT to be demolished, with the potential of reaching 25 million if owners continue to be attracted by the relatively high demolition rates and freight rates fail to improve significantly through the remainder of the year.
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A ”W-shaped” market in the making, but spiced up with frequent congestion. Demand: Following the market meltdown in 4th quarter 2008, demand has surprised on the upside since China in February initiated ..
