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As a part of European Union sanctions against Russia, the block banned coal imports from Russia starting 10 August. About two months have passed and Russia has struggled to redirect its coal exports, with export volumes down 7.0% y/y in this period and down 5.0% year to date.
Indonesian seaborne coal exports are expected to surpass 170 million tonnes by the end of April, up 32% on the same period last year. The rise is partly due to improved economic conditions in China and an increase in energy demand as a result.
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian coal have started to hurt, according to Oceanbolt.
The demand for coal in China continues to diminish. So much in fact that India is expected to succeed China as the world’s largest importer of coal this year.
Although many of China’s major bulk imports, such as iron ore and crude oil, have seen strong growth so far this year despite the COVID-19 pandemic, imports of coal have followed the opposite trajectory.
Coal demand resurged in 2022, almost surpassing its all-time peak in 2013, which has led many to question whether coal truly is dying. As one of the three major bulks, accounting for around a quarter of bulker demand, future coal demand is one of the key factors guiding the dry bulk sector in the coming decades, and a main driver of investment decisions.
There has been much talk in recent weeks and months about Chinese coal policy, particularly with regard to imports from Australia, after anecdotal evidence suggest Chinese importers have been told to shun Australian thermal coal.
In a notice released on 5 May 2022, India’s Ministry of Power instructed all power plants to increase their imports of coal. Specifically, the Ministry demands that power plants designed to run on domestic coal start importing at least 10% of their requirements.
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