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The 2015 has started off as a pretty challenging year for the container shipping industry. With volatile spot rates coupled with oversupply and ordering of ever bigger ships, shipowners across the board seem to have a lot on their plates.
Hope for resumed activity in the oil tanker business is growing as the rebellion in Libya appears to be near a conclusion. Tanker shipping has been hurt by the lack of cargoes out of Libya for half a year now. Oil majors and oil service companies are right now getting back to Libya to assess the conditions of the facilities. It is hoped that the oil production can restart soon, opening up for renewed fixing of tankers to lift Libyan oil exports. Without Libyan oil exports, there is no hope for improvements in the tanker rates in the Mediterranean.
Global oil demand is seasonal, with Q1 being the weakest season – again, leaving only upside for the remainder of the year.
The world seems to be awash with oil these days, to an extent that no geo-political tensions in the oil-rich producing nations can make us “scared enough” to hike oil prices. We seem to have become accustomed to a world where such tension is the norm. This is very good news for the world economy, as it brings down the cost of energy – despite a number of ongoing major conflicts and the challenges related to Ebola in West Africa.
Chinese seaborne imports of iron ore, coal and crude oil have all grown strongly throughout 2017. Both seaborne imports of crude oil and iron ore have reached the highest levels ever recorded, while coal reached the highest level in three years. Imports of crude oil and coal have benefitted the shipping industry to the greatest extent as both volumes and distances have increased.
The United States (US) government lifted their restrictive policy on crude oil exports in December 2015. In September and October 2017, increased demand from Asia and Europe has caused US seaborne export of crude oil to surpass the US seaborne export of oil products in terms of billion tonne miles.
In 2019, global oil demand is forecast to pass the symbolic 100 million barrels per day threshold (International Energy Agency). Developing countries account for almost all of the growth and Asia dominate. BIMCO stated in its forecast for 2017, that the tanker demand growth for 2017 is expected to come predominantly from the greater Asia region, led by China. China has met expectations by ramping up its import of seaborne crude oil by 13% for the first nine months of 2017 compared to the same period last year. As China is importing crude oil from further afield in 2017 than in 2016, the tonne miles generated has surged 18%.