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This analysis explains the recent history, updates you on the current state and displays future changes for crude oil tankers.
Some time ago, BIMCO expected the first signs of a solid recovery in the oil tanker industry to appear in the product tanker market. However, like other soon-to-arrive recoveries, the waiting time tends to increase as we approach the expected tipping point. This time around, global refinery throughput started the year strongly but entered a still running soft patch in May, high volumes but shorter hauls out of the US Gulf, and the steady inflow of new ships were part of the cocktail that prevented freight rates from taking off big time.
A Winter season that turned the market upside down is soon coming to an end. All eyes were on product tankers, thinking “would this be the beginning of something beautiful in terms of higher earnings?” No one really paid much attention to what was already in the making in the crude oil tanker sector.
The future of oil demand and subsequently of tanker demand is very much policy driven. It has been so in the past to some extent, but in coming years this will be more apparent.
2018 has been absolutely horrible for the crude oil tankers with freight rates and the fleet utilisation rate falling to a record low level.
The continued severity of the tanker market conditions has made owners dig deep into the oversupply of capacity. Still BIMCO expects the tanker fleet to keep growing. A short-term rate recovery is not expected, as it is ‘maintenance season’ for the global refining industry in September and October.
Delivered tonnage of crude oil tankers have grown by +37%, whereas total fleet demolitions for 2019 have slumped to the lowest in a decade with a reduction of 52% from the year before.
VLCC spot freight rates between the Arabian Gulf and China rose 101% in the days between 13 June 2019 and 20 June 2019, in the aftermath of attacks on two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
The tanker market is – even more so than before – all about geopolitics.
Even with the sulphur cap expected to give a boost to the tanker market, high fleet growth will put pressure on earnings.
