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The demand situation in tanker shipping is anything but formidable. We see a mixed picture from one trading area to the next and from crude oil to products.
Overall oil demand declined by 0.3 million barrels per day y-o-y in Q4-2011 as the global economy weakened and the winter season did not provide low enough temperatures to stimulate demand. As we have just left 2011 behind us, the final estimates for demand growth stay preliminary for the time being at 3% for product tankers
The demand picture for oil tankers is steady – perhaps a bit too steady if you look at the freight rate movements for VLCC crude oil tankers and MR clean product tankers. This stands in contrast to the spikes that Suezmax owners have achieved during the first five months of 2012.
The positive demand picture that was firming freight rates on benchmark routes in all crude tanker segments towards the end of 2011 and the first two months of 2012 is still hanging around. Almost the same – that is, as Aframax tanker have seen earnings on the benchmark route in the North Sea drop during February to touch the ground before taking rates to currently USD 10,500 per day.
Crude oil tanker tonnage in the size range from Aframax to VLCC is now recycled at the age of just 21, a level not seen since 1995. The poor freight market now increasingly impacts the segment of more mature tankers, effectively reducing the room for more demolition to balance the market.
A fundamentally weak oil demand that is negatively affected by the high oil prices is hampering demand for both crude and product tanker tonnage. The weak demand is set to stay around according to IEA, which projects limited growth in 2011 of 1.5% against the 3.3% rebound growth in 2010.
In a year that is bound to be challenging for tankers, increasing focus will be on the different disruptions affecting the market and bringing about rate spikes
One year ago the tanker orderbook stood at 132 million DWT – today it totals 118 million DWT. The total orderbook is down by 11% over the last year. Even though new contracts are being signed at a steady pace, that pace remains slower than that of newbuildings being delivered.
BIMCO’s expectations remains as the oil product tanker fleet continues to grow, with earnings at the lowest since Q3 in 2014.
Demand. Lower growth rates for refinery throughput and drawdowns on swollen oil stocks has impacted the seaborne tanker market negatively. BIMCO expected this to happen...
