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Preliminary shipping data from Oceanbolt shows a 1.7% y/y drop in Chinese iron ore import volumes in August. The volumes are, however, the highest since January and follow a 3.1% y/y increase in July. Year-to-date, Chinese iron ore imports are down 3.3% y/y, making up around 20% of global dry bulk volumes, but could be in for a bounce, benefitting the struggling Capesize segments.
Chinese crude oil imports fell year-on-year in June and July, ending a streak of five months of accumulated year-on-year growth.
In September 2022, head-haul and regional export volumes were down 9.3% y/y according to Container Trade Statistics. Head-haul trades fell 15.5% whereas regional trades were down 0.7%. At the same time, volumes were 0.2% lower than in September 2019. The volume decline represented the first month since June 2020 to see lower volumes compared with the same month in 2019 and could be a warning that laid up ships and further freight rate reductions are on the horizon.
During the first nine months of 2023, coal shipments to the world’s second largest importer of seaborne coal, India, fell 9% y/y. A 12% y/y rise in domestic coal mining replaced imports and electricity production continued to rise despite lower production from hydro power.
The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach continue their record-breaking start to the year, exceeding pre-pandemic records again and again.
The airline industry has been hit hard during the COVID-19 pandemic and seaborne jet fuel cargo volumes suffered along with it. In comparison to pre-pandemic levels, available seat kilometres dropped nearly 90% in early 2020.
According to BIMCO estimates from the upcoming Dry Bulk Shipping Market Overview and Outlook report, deliveries of bulk carriers should drop to 23.8 million DWT in 2024. The sector’s orderbook currently adds up to 66.7 million DWT, a mere 6.9% of the bulker fleet, the lowest ratio since at least 1996.
During the first eight months of 2023, contracting of product tanker newbuilds hit a 10-year high, reaching 140 ships and 10.72 million deadweight tonnes (DWT). The last time more than 10 million DWT were contracted from January through August was in 2013.
Over the past eight quarters, ship recycling of bulkers, tankers and container ships has dropped to the lowest level in 20 years. A combination of strong demand following a series of market shocks and low orderbooks have kept older ships operating for longer than usual.
President Alberto Fernández recently pledged that Argentina would seize the opportunity to help meet global wheat demand while taking advantage of the high prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A poor harvest, however, could change the picture.
