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2015 has been the year of the tanker. The fundamental improvements with slow supply-side growth for some years coupled with low oil prices from mid-2014 created strength on both sides.
Demand for crude oil and oil product tankers is currently strong and both segments are enjoying an extended winter season with high earnings.
The positive demand picture that was firming freight rates on benchmark routes in all crude tanker segments towards the end of 2011 and the first two months of 2012 is still hanging around. Almost the same – that is, as Aframax tanker have seen earnings on the benchmark route in the North Sea drop during February to touch the ground before taking rates to currently USD 10,500 per day.
Hope for resumed activity in the oil tanker business is growing as the rebellion in Libya appears to be near a conclusion. Tanker shipping has been hurt by the lack of cargoes out of Libya for half a year now. Oil majors and oil service companies are right now getting back to Libya to assess the conditions of the facilities. It is hoped that the oil production can restart soon, opening up for renewed fixing of tankers to lift Libyan oil exports. Without Libyan oil exports, there is no hope for improvements in the tanker rates in the Mediterranean.
On 12 April 2016, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its updated World Economic Outlook stating that future economic prospects are now so poor that an immediate, proactive response is called for.
2016 continues where 2015 ended, with all eyes on China. This is mainly because of uncertainty surrounding the development of the world’s second-largest economy. When the first day of the Shanghai Stock Exchange of 2016 closed prematurely, the trading results echoed around the world. It warned us that we are in for a rough ride in 2016.
Chinese seaborne imports of iron ore, coal and crude oil have all grown strongly throughout 2017. Both seaborne imports of crude oil and iron ore have reached the highest levels ever recorded, while coal reached the highest level in three years. Imports of crude oil and coal have benefitted the shipping industry to the greatest extent as both volumes and distances have increased.
Delivered tonnage of crude oil tankers have grown by +37%, whereas total fleet demolitions for 2019 have slumped to the lowest in a decade with a reduction of 52% from the year before.
US exports of crude oil have, since August 2018, continued to rise every month, with a new record high in January of 9.6 million tonnes.
The oil market is notoriously linked to geopolitics. Most recently, the political situation in Venezuela creates turmoil in the region and particularly affects crude oil exports.
