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Overall oil demand declined by 0.3 million barrels per day y-o-y in Q4-2011 as the global economy weakened and the winter season did not provide low enough temperatures to stimulate demand. As we have just left 2011 behind us, the final estimates for demand growth stay preliminary for the time being at 3% for product tankers
Crude oil tanker tonnage in the size range from Aframax to VLCC is now recycled at the age of just 21, a level not seen since 1995. The poor freight market now increasingly impacts the segment of more mature tankers, effectively reducing the room for more demolition to balance the market.
Global oil demand has never been higher, despite recent revisions. Demand is driven by growth in Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and FSU, while requirements in North America and EU are contracting in 2011 as well as in 2012. The IEA has revised down its demand outlook by 0.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) for 2011 to reach 89.3 and by 0.4 mb/d for 2012 to reach 90.7. Growth outlook now stands at a modest 1.1% in 2011 and 1.6% in 2012.
BIMCO’s expectations remains as the oil product tanker fleet continues to grow, with earnings at the lowest since Q3 in 2014.
This analysis explains the recent history, updates you on the current state and displays future changes for crude oil tankers.
Some time ago, BIMCO expected the first signs of a solid recovery in the oil tanker industry to appear in the product tanker market. However, like other soon-to-arrive recoveries, the waiting time tends to increase as we approach the expected tipping point. This time around, global refinery throughput started the year strongly but entered a still running soft patch in May, high volumes but shorter hauls out of the US Gulf, and the steady inflow of new ships were part of the cocktail that prevented freight rates from taking off big time.
On Tuesday 16 December 2014 at 1100 GMT, BIMCO members with access to Thomson Reuters will be able to take part in an exchange of views about the crude oil and oil products shipping industry.
On Thursday 30 October 2014 at 1100 GMT, BIMCO members with access to Thomson Reuters will be able to take part in an exchange of views about the crude oil and oil products shipping industry.
Global oil demand is seasonal, with Q1 being the weakest season – again, leaving only upside for the remainder of the year.
The world seems to be awash with oil these days, to an extent that no geo-political tensions in the oil-rich producing nations can make us “scared enough” to hike oil prices. We seem to have become accustomed to a world where such tension is the norm. This is very good news for the world economy, as it brings down the cost of energy – despite a number of ongoing major conflicts and the challenges related to Ebola in West Africa.
