09 October 2011
2011 started out with a lot of optimism fuelled by a surprisingly better-than-expected growth in the second half of 2010. As the year has progressed it has turned into a paradise lost rather than the sustainable recovery we were all hoping for. Since the January issue of World Economic Outlook was released, IMF has reduced the growth expectations for the Global GDP and now expects only 4.0% growth in 2011. If this forecast holds true, it will be the slowest global growth since 2003 – if you discard the crisis-years of 2008 and 2009. Slashing not only its 2011-estimate, the 2012 outlook has been further lowered, cutting a 0.5%-point off the previously expected 4.5%. Growth is not only slowing down, it is also more unevenly distributed. The growth in advanced economies is now set for 1.6% as compared to an estimate of 2.4% 20 months ago. In contrast, Emerging and Developing economies are up 0.1 to reach 6.4 as compared to 20 months ago.
14 February 2011
Global recovery advances but remains uneven, with two main tracks. In advanced economies, activity has tempered less than expected, but growth remains
07 April 2011
The recent economic crisis inflicted substantial damage on the public finances of many countries around the world. Enormous stimulus programmes
25 February 2020
Strengthening global growth could be derailed by a range of factors this year, including the coronavirus outbreak and a further escalation of trade tensions across the world.
30 August 2018
Starting a trade war is bad for everyone, and shipping is right in the eye of the storm. Adding a new sanctions regime involving the US and Iran is putting another layer of stress on a shipping industry that is struggling to generate profits. Not surprisingly, the IMF’s estimate for world trade volumes was adjusted downwards for both 2018 and 2019 in July.
30 May 2018
GDP growth and high trade multipliers have benefitted the shipping industry through higher trade volumes, but this could be as good as it gets.
19 November 2018
The effects of rising barriers to trade, capital flowing out of emerging market economies, and the elevated geopolitical risk are now clear to everyone.
25 October 2009
The world economy has stopped shrinking – Coming quarters could prove strong. Global economy: The International Monetary Fund is expecting a V-shaped recession with fairly quick recovery and positive quarterly growth figures in 2010. However, this is just one of
14 December 2009
Much depends on whether public stimulus will be followed by “real” demand. Global economy: The global economy has returned to positive growth following dramatic declines.
07 November 2017
For the demand side to reap the full benefits of this possible global upturn, globalisation must be embraced and the gains from open trade must be a key focus of the policymaker's agenda, replacing any inward-looking policies