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Industry Releasable Threat Assessment

04 June 2018

This document provides the most recent information available affecting merchant ships in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Oman and Western Indian Ocean.

Crude oil tonne miles out of the Gulf of Guinea down 5.9% so far in 2022

22 September 2022

Gulf of Guinea crude oil exports have year-to-date contributed 13.7% of VLCC’s tonne miles demand and 16.5% of Suezmaxes. A 13.5% y/y drop in Nigerian year-to-date crude oil output has been the main drain on demand and caused a 5.9% decline in tonne miles. A further decline in Gulf of Guinea exports can be expected from mid-2023 when Nigeria’s Dangote refinery begins operation – requiring a sizeable portion of the country’s crude oil – and possibly add to rate volatility.