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Macro Economics - Mixed global growth trends and modest job creation generates a very challenging setting

13 December 2011

By looking at the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing & Service PMI, it is clear that global growth is under pressure, as PMI output reaches the lowest level since mid-2009. The PMI data shows that global private sector output expanded at the weakest rate since the recovery began in August 2009. At 51.4, down from 52.0 in September, the output index indicated only a modest increase in economic activity.

Tanker Shipping - Modest demand growth and continued oversupply sets the scene

13 December 2011

Overall, it’s noticeable that record numbers of fixtures and demand for tonnage only produce a short-lived spike at rather low altitudes – making little impact on stretched owners’ financial accounts. Ship owners without a solid cash balance and a strong, or at least sustainable, cash flow will find it increasing difficult to continue in this business at the present level and volatility.

Macro Economics - GDP and world trade growth downwardly adjusted as the double-dip-ghost refuses to leave the stage.

09 October 2011

2011 started out with a lot of optimism fuelled by a surprisingly better-than-expected growth in the second half of 2010. As the year has progressed it has turned into a paradise lost rather than the sustainable recovery we were all hoping for. Since the January issue of World Economic Outlook was released, IMF has reduced the growth expectations for the Global GDP and now expects only 4.0% growth in 2011. If this forecast holds true, it will be the slowest global growth since 2003 – if you discard the crisis-years of 2008 and 2009. Slashing not only its 2011-estimate, the 2012 outlook has been further lowered, cutting a 0.5%-point off the previously expected 4.5%. Growth is not only slowing down, it is also more unevenly distributed. The growth in advanced economies is now set for 1.6% as compared to an estimate of 2.4% 20 months ago. In contrast, Emerging and Developing economies are up 0.1 to reach 6.4 as compared to 20 months ago.