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The fundamental balance will continue to deteriorate in 2020, offering little support to operators hoping to pass on higher fuel costs, caused by the sulphur cap, to shippers.
The shipping market and underlying profitability can only improve if the fundamental conditions (supply and demand) also improve. Therefore transportation of larger volumes, longer sailing distances in general or a lower increase of dry-bulk fleet size is a prerequisite for better markets to arrive.
Despite the year-on-year improvements, the complete lack of volatility outside the Capesize segment means that spot operators’ trading possibilities have been scarce.
BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, in a video interview talking about the recently published "Road to Recovery" analysis of the dry bulk market.
Following an almost total halt in exports of soya beans to China in the last quarter of 2018, the new year has brought new hopes for American farmers and the dry bulk shipping sector.
Having narrowly avoided a recession in the fourth quarter of 2022, the Japanese economy appears to be recovering. However, Japan’s demand for steel remains weak and as a result, the country’s bulk imports are estimated to have fallen by 4% y/y in the first quarter of 2023.
China’s long-anticipated economic recovery is the missing link that can lead the rebound of the bulk market in 2023 and into 2024, and we expect the recovery to begin in the second half of 2023.
The first couple of months have been challenging for all ship sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise.