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After an unusually strong start to the year, seasonality has caught up with the dry bulk market. Coupled with a slow recovery in global economic activity, it looks set to be another challenging year.
The three best performing dry bulk terminals in the world are Santander and Bilbao in Spain and Quebec in Canada, according to BIMCO’s 2017 Dry Bulk Terminals Vetting Report.
The fleet is growing at the slowest pace since 1999, and solid growth in demand means that the dry bulk shipping industry should be facing another year of improvement to the fundamental balance.
Demand. The dry bulk commodity imports into and exports out of China we have seen in the first half of 2016 are very positive – and nothing short of extraordinary. But, putting it into perspective, compared to the devastating freight rate levels over the same period, it highlights that something is very wrong in the dry bulk market. The market is nowhere near balanced.
RightShip and INTERCARGO have today announced the launch of an important new quality standard for the dry bulk sector, DryBMS. The standard will be governed by a new NGO to be established later this year and will support the improvement of safety in the dry bulk segment.
The current demise of the dry bulk market isn’t one to go away anytime soon. That doesn’t mean that it can’t improve, with all ship classes expected to cover their operating costs by May. Meanwhile, demolition activity isn’t enough, at least thus far, to offset oversupply of tonnage in the dry bulk market.
China's import of iron ore will continue to be a key driver for the demand growth in 2017 for the dry bulk shipping industry, alongside shipping of grains.
China’s property market is estimated to account for approximately 35% of the country’s steel demand. It is an important driver for economic growth and raw materials like iron ore, coking coal, wood, and cement. Overall, the Chinese economy is a significant driver of dry bulk and more than 35% of dry bulk volumes are destined for China.
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs.
