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Demand drivers and freight rates The first four months of 2021 have been record-breaking in volume terms, with demand reaching 1.69 billion tonnes – the highest-ever start to a year. Volumes are up 6.1% compared with the same period in 2020, and only slightly down from the 1.72 billion tonnes in the final four months of 2020.
According to BIMCO estimates from the upcoming Dry Bulk Shipping Market Overview and Outlook report, deliveries of bulk carriers should drop to 23.8 million DWT in 2024. The sector’s orderbook currently adds up to 66.7 million DWT, a mere 6.9% of the bulker fleet, the lowest ratio since at least 1996.
The fragile recovery is stalling because the fleet is growing too fast.
When profits finally arrive, everyone breathes a sigh of relief. Several years of very bad markets have come to an end, but how do we retain the profitable freight rates?
Between January and October, dry bulk exports out of the Black Sea increased by 13% y/y, driven by Russian wheat exports. After two strong consecutive wheat harvests in Russia, the country’s exports are now on track to reach a new record in 2023. However, Black Sea export volumes are 20% lower than in 2021 due to the loss of Ukrainian cargoes following Russia’s invasion of the country.
Total imports of iron ore and soya beans were lower in 2018 than in 2017, down 1% and 7.9% respectively, and although imports of coal grew 3.7% in 2018, this was slower than the growth in 2017.
In an exclusive interview with “Akti Miaouli” newspaper, BIMCO Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, provides insight into the markets for dry bulkers, tankers and containerships in 2016 and what to expect going forward.
Since early July, the capesize rates have gone up and up. By mid-August, they had reached a breakeven level to become profitable. BIMCO estimates that a capesize ship on average fleet financing and operational cost levels, turns profitable when rates are above $15,300 per day.
It is safe to conclude already that it has been another truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November.
