The coronavirus pandemic has shutdown much of the US economy for months and even as parts of it reopen, the data is beginning to reveal the extent of the damage that has been done and a slow recovery is taking a tentative shape.
In 2023, the container market grew 0.2% year-on-year, ending at 173.8 million TEU. Compared to 2019, before the COVID pandemic hit, the market grew 1.5%. Container market growth has lagged behind overall economic development significantly, as the world economy has grown 10% since 2019.
The labour conflict that caused a widespread and highly disruptive strike and subsequent congestion in most US West Coast ports, especially for the container shipping industry ended toward the end of February.
Since July 2020, the container market has benefitted from a surge in consumption of goods compared to pre-COVID levels, and head-haul and regional trade volumes have followed. Compared to the same period of 2019, container volumes in the second half of 2020 were up 5.7% while full year 2021 volumes were 9.0% higher. Volumes in the first half of 2022 were up 8.3%, also compared with H1 2019. Despite a growing fleet, capacity supply was unable to keep up as port congestion absorbed as much as 14% of the fleet, data from Sea-Intelligence shows.
Despite falling 1.1% m/m in both November and December, US retail sales volumes remain 13% above 2019 levels and 6% higher than the pre-COVID trend. However, sales volumes could return to trend during 2023 and thereby pose a risk for Asia to North America container volumes.
Initially, the COVID-19 pandemic and mobility restrictions across the world led to much lower transport demand in the container sector. In the 3rd quarter of 2020, however, demand jumped as consumers converted spending on services to higher spending on goods. Freight and time charter rates have since reached historically high levels as congestion has increased the strain on supply. Now, the size of the container fleet has, however, caught up with transport demand.
Following five weak months of demand growth (January-May), transported container volumes are finally growing on the Far East to Europe trading lane – as much as 1.9% y-o-y in the first seven months of 2013.
James Hetfield may have had container line operators in mind when writing: “Waiting for the one – the day that never comes – when you stand up and feel the warmth – but the sunshine never comes”.
As the Chinese Lunar New Year draws to an end, the container lines have already prepared themselves for a strong rebound. In fact they must have been
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