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2016 is off to a flying start when it comes to delivering brand new VLCCs from shipyards in South Korea and China to owners and investor across the globe.
Overall, container volumes being moved around the world have grown by an average GDP-to-trade multiplier of just 1.1 since 2010 and we expect this to continue in coming years. With IMF expecting GDP growth of 3.4% in 2016, this translates into container demand of 3.5-4%.
The International Labour Organisation (ILO) celebrated its 100 years by issuing a new consolidated text of the Maritime Labour Convention, as amended (MLC,2006) which includes the 2014 and 2016 amendments.
Iron ore provides 30% of the demand for the dry bulk market and, during 2016, its related tonne-mile demand went up by 6%. This was the key factor behind the overall demand side growth of 2.2%.
It will not be a surprise if we see another downward revision of GDP growth in 2017...
This annual report records the lowest number of incidents reported since 1998 although within the reported incidents there is a 10 year high in the number of seafarer kidnappings.
The dry bulk fleet exceeded 800 mill DWT in January 2017, as the dry bulk fleet grew by 2.6% year on year. BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst Peter Sand expects the dry bulk fleet to grow 1.6% for the full year in 2017, if the projected demolition activity of 19 mill DWT is realised. The declining growth rate from the panamax, supramax and handysize segments was absorbed by a growing capesize fleet; the total fleet growth was stable in 2016.
2016 continues where 2015 ended, with all eyes on China. This is mainly because of uncertainty surrounding the development of the world’s second-largest economy. When the first day of the Shanghai Stock Exchange of 2016 closed prematurely, the trading results echoed around the world. It warned us that we are in for a rough ride in 2016.
From a crude oil market perspective, 2016 can be summed up as “eventful”. In January, the international sanctions on Iran were lifted, resulting in a very swift increase of their oil production capacities and subsequent re-entry into the global oil export market.
Demand. The dry bulk commodity imports into and exports out of China we have seen in the first half of 2016 are very positive – and nothing short of extraordinary. But, putting it into perspective, compared to the devastating freight rate levels over the same period, it highlights that something is very wrong in the dry bulk market. The market is nowhere near balanced.
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