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Members are advised of the UK MTO advisory published yesterday concerning the attack in the Red Sea.
The Round Table of international shipping associations plus the OCIMF representing the global shipping and oil industry have announced the geographic boundaries of the ‘High Risk Area’ for piracy in the Indian Ocean have been reduced, with new advice issued to merchant ship operators.
The ending of the monsoon has focused increased attention on the piracy issue and thus also the costs of piracy.
Looking for a seasonal pick up while suffering unsustainable rates. Demand: According to figures from the International Energy Agency, global oil demand peaked in 2007 and is forecast to have bottomed out in the second quarter of 2009.
Demand for crude oil and oil product tankers is currently strong and both segments are enjoying an extended winter season with high earnings.
Demand: EIA has revised their oil demand forecast upwards for 2011. Global oil demand in 2011 is now expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (MB/day) to 87.8 MB/day assuming consensus trends in the global economy, crude prices development and possible efficiency gains. Growth will be driven entirely by non-OECD countries (+3.8% or +1.6 MB/day), while the OECD sees resumed decline (-0.5% or -0.2 MB/day). The outlook for 2010 remains unchanged at 86.5 MB/day (+2.1% or +1.8 MB/day versus 2009).
The shift in oil demand is causing shorter sailing distances, so in order to maintain the fundamental balance with the present fleet in the tanker markets, the oil demand has to grow twice as much in the East as the oil demand shrinks in the West.
The upcoming winter season could be a very welcome time-out from sub-USD 10,000 per day markets for both crude and product tanker markets. BIMCO forecast that freight rates for VLCC will firm as the winter season
Crude oil has been trading in the USD 70-90 per barrel band for almost a year now. Oil prices crossed the USD 90 per barrel threshold in May
