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Tanker Shipping - Tanker markets are in limbo – waiting for a better demand environment to make the day

12 August 2010

Demand: EIA has revised their oil demand forecast upwards for 2011. Global oil demand in 2011 is now expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (MB/day) to 87.8 MB/day assuming consensus trends in the global economy, crude prices development and possible efficiency gains. Growth will be driven entirely by non-OECD countries (+3.8% or +1.6 MB/day), while the OECD sees resumed decline (-0.5% or -0.2 MB/day). The outlook for 2010 remains unchanged at 86.5 MB/day (+2.1% or +1.8 MB/day versus 2009).

Dry Bulk Shipping - New orders are still inked at high pace. 2012 is now set to be the biggest delivery year of them all at 88 million DWT

10 October 2010

Following the summer dip where Capesize was hit badly, dry bulk freight rates have once again bounced back like a tumbler. Capesize rates are back at year-to-date average around USD 30,000 per day. Capesize freight rates are moving like a heartbeat, but at lower and lower pulse levels and going deeper and deeper as more vessels enter the market. In spite of remaining inefficiencies in the supply chain, slow steaming, and continued strong demand for raw materials going forward, the big ships are in for a fundamental imbalance between supply and demand.

Need for rethinking about when to sail around the Cape of Good Hope?

22 April 2010

US President Obama has issued an Executive Order with the heading “Blocking Property of Certain Persons Contributing to the Conflict in Somalia”, which could have an impact on the possibility for paying ransom under some circumstances. The situation is not clear and perhaps some ship owners will consider how to address this situation before transiting the Gulf of Aden and the Somali Basin. On that background, we hereby include an updated version of our calculations regarding the cost part of the decision to go round the Cape of the Good Hope.

Dry Bulk Shipping - An unpleasant endurance race has begun for dry bulk owners, as healthy demand is overwhelmingly outstripped by oversupply

21 June 2011

The healthy demand picture of some 6% demand growth is what keeps the dry bulkers afloat. Despite the multiple disruptions that have already taken place, we see growing demand for almost all commodities. This has certainly prevented a meltdown of freight rates. Many people expected the current doldrums already last year, but extremely strong demand growth in 2010 postponed the hardship into 2011.

Macro Economics - Global recovery is taking a breather before growth is expected to resume at a higher pace in the second half of 2011

20 June 2011

The speed of the global recovery has slowed down over the past couple of months, but the prospects for stronger growth in the second half of the year remain intact, as the underlying growth trend as well as job creation continues. But sustaining this may be highly dependent on output and demand solidifying in the coming months.