2021 World of Shipping Portugal: An International Research Conference on Maritime Affairs

  • 28/01/2021
  • 29/01/2021
  • Webinar
  • Peter Sand
  • ps@bimco.org

Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst will join ‘2021 World of Shipping Portugal’, on 28 January from 9:45-10:10 CET.

Peter Sand will join the Opening Ceremony and deliver the presentation “How will the market behave in a post-Pandemic situation?” 

BIMCO’s market analysis from the latest updates to forecasts for economic and trade growth this year is that the initial fall wasn’t as bad as it could have been. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now expects the global economy to contract by 4.4% this year, a large drop compared with the 3.3% growth being projected in January, but an improvement from the -4.9% estimated in June. Sadly, the risks are weighted to the downside and with several major economies returning to some form of lockdown, even this 4.4% drop may prove too optimistic. By comparison, the 2008 global financial crisis led to a 0.1% drop in GDP in 2009.

The growth lost this year and the outlook of only getting back to 2019 activity levels in 2022 have denied the world its pre-pandemic growth. Trade has been pushed onto a lower path, one whose outcome remains unclear while a definite end to the medical crisis remains out of sight. This lower growth path stems from this year’s lost economic activity, as well as lower investments in the future, both limiting the potential for growth.

It also means lower fundamental demand for shipping in the medium and, potentially, the longer term: even once we have returned to 2019 levels, demand will, for many years, still be lower than it would have been had the pandemic not happened.

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