BIMCOs Chief Shipping Analyst Peter Sand will share his insight into the container shipping market when he present BIMCO’s view on the current market conditions, including the impact from trade wars, regionalism and the looming IMO2020 sulphur gap.
What to expect?
A comprehensive economic and trade outlook – Gain the full picture on the current state of the global economy, how are current geopolitical tensions impacting global trade patterns, and the impact on shipping sector.
A deep dive into how the tanker, container and dry bulk markets are evolving – Hear a detailed assessment of how each market is developing, the challenges they face, and the opportunities out there.
The global sulfur cap 2020 – time has run out, what will happen through 2020? – Just 35 days before the cap, the industry should have a good idea just what to expect come the 1st of January. But how will operating with higher fuel costs, and the risk of compatibility and availability issues impact upon the sector?
Future outlook – what could shipping look like in 10 years? – With digital technologies slowly being embraced, how will this transform the world of shipping, is it for the greater good?
BIMCO’s container shipping market outlook
The continued slowdown in global manufacturing and the broader global economy will impact container shipping. BIMCO expects the GDP multiplier to stay around one for the foreseeable future.
The slowing demand growth means that despite the comparatively low fleet growth expectations which BIMCO has of 3.5%, the fundamental balance of the container shipping market will worsen this year. Furthermore, with the fleet currently projected to grow by 3.2% in 2020 this is unlikely to change much next year, with the industry heading deeper into a hole. Cutting costs will remain in focus to be able to weather the storm.
Adding to the worsening of the fundamental balance, the added fuel costs due to the 2020 sulphur cap, paints a disturbing picture for the rest of the 2019 and 2020 for container shipping. As we have also noted in the dry bulk analysis, the oversupply of capacity is likely to make it difficult for shipowners to recover the additional fuel costs.